A trader holding a position in US Treasury futures has exposure to interest rate movements, but that exposure exists independent of political outcomes. If an election result could shift monetary policy expectations, the trader faces a hidden correlation: Treasury prices and election prediction markets may move together. Polymarket offers a mechanism to isolate, measure, and […]
A trader holding a position in US Treasury futures has exposure to interest rate movements, but that exposure exists independent of political outcomes. If an election result could shift monetary policy expectations, the trader faces a hidden correlation: Treasury prices and election prediction markets may move together. Polymarket offers a mechanism to isolate, measure, and […]
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